Some Notes on the Russia-Ukraine War

- May 21, 2022

Sumit Ghosh

A. Brief Chronology of the Russian-Ukrainian War

February 2014: Russian annexation of Crimea

April 2014: War of Independence in Donbas (Civil War in Ukraine)

August 2014: Russia dispatches ‘humanitarian convoy’ of trucks along the Ukrainian border

September 2014: ceasefire agreement (Minsk Protocol) demarcates border between Ukraine and the rebel controlled Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts

February 2015: Minsk II protocol signed; Ukrainian forces withdrawn from Donbas

August 2016: Ukraine reports Russian military presence along the Crimean border

2017-18: Ukraine appeals for the use of the Kerch Strait, but Russia limits the size of ships that can pass through the strait by building a bridge

November 2018: 3 Ukrainian boats, traveling from Odessa to Mariupol, were seized by Russian warships while trying to cross the Kerch Strait; Ukraine imposes martial law along its coastal regions

May 2019: Ukrainian President Zelensky promises to end the War in Donbas

December 2019: Government and rebel forces begin swapping prisoners of war

March-April 2021: Russian military presence along the Russo-Ukrainian border

February 2022: Russian aggression towards Ukraine

B. An Overview of Ukrainian Resources

In Kyiv and Lviv, more than 100,000 people are associated with social media administration. In Europe, the country ranks first in terms of uranium reserves & arable land, second in terms of titanium ore reserves, mercury ore reserves, shale gas reserves & capacity of nuclear power plants and third in terms of natural gas production. On the other hand, it ranks first in terms of sunflower oil export & production of rocket launchers, second in terms of manganese & iron ore reserves, third in terms of potato production, iron & clay export, fourth for coal reserves, barley export, railway network & rye production, fifth for honey production, corn, wheat & titanium export and twelfth in terms of steel production, in the world [1]. A lucrative destination for imperialist aggression indeed!

C. Russia-Ukraine Dispute over Gas Trade

Ukraine is the main transit route for the transport of Russian natural gas to Europe. Ukraine earns about 3 billion US Dollars annually as transit fees. But the launch of the Nord Stream pipeline which bypasses Ukraine has reduced Russian dependence on Ukraine for gas export to Europe. The Turk Stream natural gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Turkey has further diverted the country from Ukrainian dependence. In 2021, US President Joe Biden revoked Donald Trump's sanctions on the company associated with Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline supplying to Germany. Ukraine colluded with the EU and US to regain its transit income. However, Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel concluded a deal which stated that the US would initiate sanctions if Russia deprived Poland and Ukraine from gas supplies. Thus, Russia was in a gas export conundrum with Ukraine, US and Germany. After the outbreak of war, the gas supply through Ukraine & Nord Stream 1 has been cut off and the Nord Stream 2 deal is also dead [2].

D. US and European Financial Aid to Ukraine

The US has provided Ukraine with 1.5 billion US Dollars as military aid during 2010 [3]. In 2014, they pledged 1 billion US Dollar aid to Ukraine during the latter’s escalation of war with Russia [4]. The US assistance to Ukraine has been continuously increasing since 2015 [5]. The US had lifted its ban on military aid to the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion of Ukraine in 2016; they renewed the ban in 2018 [6]. Hence, the so called de-Nazi-fication policy of US is itself dicey.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) affiliated to the European Union, has condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine and approved 668 million Euros as financial support for Ukraine [7]. The bilateral trade between Russia and EU has disrupted. EU has excluded Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system [8]. However, the west European nations have also resorted to doublespeak. They don’t want India to buy Russian oil at a discount but have increased their own gas imports! At one moment, the EU is imposing sanctions on Russia and in the next moment they are negotiating with Putin on the payment in ruble [9].

E. Effect of the War on US Economy

The war will greatly increase the natural gas exports of USA to European countries which used to buy a huge amount from Russia earlier. The war is likely to benefit the US military-industrial complex as USA, Germany and other NATO countries have begun providing weapons to Ukraine [10]. In short, it’s politically and economically beneficial for the Biden administration!

F. The Russian Complaint

Though the US had promised not to delve to its eastern borders during the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO had ever since continued on its eastward expansion, much to the dislike of the capitalist rulers of the Russian Federation. Almost all of Europe to the west of Russia, with the exception of Belarus, Ukraine, Finland & Sweden are already NATO members [11]. Amidst the ongoing war, Finland and Sweden have applied for NATO membership; the present authoritarian government of Turkey, a NATO member alongside being a Russian ally, has threatened to block such membership proposals [12].

President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin has criticized the enlargement of NATO as a threat to the security of his own country [13]. He has justified Russian military aggression as a check towards Ukrainian ambition of joining the concerned military alliance and the deployment of missiles along Russian borders in eastern Europe. Putin has also questioned Ukraine's right to exist [14]! While the security concern of Russia amidst expansion of NATO is legitimate, it cannot justify Russian aggression towards a neighbouring country. Putin’s comments undermining Ukrainian sovereignty is highly condemnable. Russian forces must retreat from Ukraine immediately. The continuous refusal of the US and NATO in addressing Russian security concerns and the deployment of troops in the region of unrest has been provocative and further escalated tensions [15]. The US and NATO must stop all modes of financial aid signifying military provocations immediately.

G. Is Russia imperialist?

According to some recent studies, Russia does not share the economic characteristic features of the imperialist core comprising of advanced capitalist countries; rather, it lies on the capitalist semi-periphery. However, similar conclusions can be reached in case of China as well, though the staunch imperialist ambitions of the latter come to the forefront every now and then. Hence, we need to revisit the traditional concepts on imperialism and keep a close watch on the political activities of semi-peripheral countries. Russia, in its quest to maintain trade relations with both the West and East European countries with respect to a wide range of commodities (most importantly oil and natural gas), has tried to secure its political dominance over its border sharing countries since the formation of the Russian Federation in 1991. Additionally, Russia is one of the world’s most ‘powerful’ countries based on its military might. Therefore, considering the Russian role as a bully over East Europe and its overseas investments, a thorough study on the imperialist ambitions of Russia is essential [16].

H. Putin gets it all wrong: How Ukraine came into being?

Kievan Rus (12th century) and the Kingdom of Ruthenia (14th century) were historic precursors of modern day Ukraine and Belarus. After the Galicia-Volhynia War, Ruthenia was partitioned between the Kingdom of Poland and the Duchy of Lithuania. Gradually, Poland began to rule over this entire land (16th century) and rejected demands of autonomy. A Cossack Hetmanate was established in the 17th century. After defeat to the Poles at the Battle of Berestechko, the region came under Tsarist influence as a defensive tactic. During World War I, the Ukrainian People's Republic was proclaimed in 1917. After the Russian Revolution, the Bolshevik backed Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was established in the territory of the former Russian Empire and the West Ukrainian People's Republic was established in the territory of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. Western Ukraine got incorporated into Poland after the wars with Poland. During German occupation and Soviet defense of parts of the territory of Poland on the eve of World War II, the entire Ukrainian speaking population came under the jurisdiction of Ukraine (Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic). During the dissolution of USSR, the modern Ukraine emerged as a sovereign nation.

In consonance with his theory of ‘Right of Nations to Self-Determination’, Lenin had stated in 1917: “We do not favor the existence of small states. We stand for the closest union of the workers of the world against “their own” capitalists and those of all other countries. But for this union to be voluntary, the Russian worker, who does not for a moment trust The Russian or the Ukrainian bourgeoisie in anything, now stands for the right of the Ukrainians to secede, without imposing his friendship upon them, but striving to win their friendship by treating them as an equal, as an ally and brother in the struggle for socialism” [17]. Accordingly, during the Soviet Era, Novorossiya was incorporated into Ukraine in 1922, the present western regions of Ukraine were incorporated in 1939 & 1945 and Crimea was ‘added’ in 1954 [18].

Hence, Putin’s questioning of Ukraine’s right to exist has no historical basis and while he is trying to foment Soviet nostalgia in support of Russia’s imperialist aggression, such efforts are in contradiction with the former Soviet Union’s historic stand on the Right of Nations to Self-Determination.

I. Putin’s Reliance on Soviet Nostalgia

Russian troops have been seen flying the Soviet Red flag to sprout Soviet nostalgia amongst its own people and the Ukrainian rebels in garner support in favor of its imperialist aggression [19]. On May Day 2022, Russian astronauts unfolded the Soviet Victory Banner at the International Space Station as a part of the same propaganda. Hence, it needs reminding that Krikalev, an costronaut of the Mir space station was stranded in space from 1991 to 1992 due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Krikalev being a cosmonaut without a country [20]. Ironically, the leaders of the Russian counter-revolution were all the then communist party incumbents. To add, the current Russian pro-bourgeois leadership upholds that shameful legacy. For example, Putin, a former Soviet spy, described communism as ‘a blind alley, far away from the mainstream of civilization’ in 1999. While the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has fallen prey to Putin’s current pro-Soviet rhetoric, the Communist Party of Greece has cautioned everyone of such deceit and has stated, ‘…the military conflict in Ukraine is the result of the sharpening of competition between the two warring camps, primarily focused on spheres of influence, market shares, raw materials, energy plans and transport routes; competition which can no longer be resolved by diplomatic–political means and fragile compromises’ [21].

J. Capital flows of Russia

The major obstacles in studying the capital flows of Russia are the tax havens; the major FDI contributors in Russia are Cyprus, United Kingdom & the Netherlands and the major Russian FDIs have also been found in Cyprus, Netherlands, Austria, United Kingdom & Switzerland! [22]. For the past few years, Russia’s top import and export partner has been China [23]. Currently, China is keen on increasing its stakes in the Russian energy and related commodities based companies like Gazprom and United Co. Rusal International [24]. Chinese FDI in Russia is increasing since 2020; a sharp increase can be observed from July, 2021 [25].

K. Capital flows of Ukraine

In 2020, Ukraine’s top import and export partner was China! In this regard, Russia and the US can be ranked 4th and 8th respectively [26].

L. Effect of the War on Chinese Economy

Due to US sanctions, Russia is turning towards China to sell oil, gas and other commodities. This dependence will make it easier for China to bargain for lowering of price. This may accentuate China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to infiltrate Russia for an alternative financial mechanism to shift from the US Dollar to the Chinese Yuan [27].

Foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds have drastically reduced since February. Russian Central Bank's foreign reserves in Euros and US Dollars have been frozen by sanctions [28]. Thus, Russia might sell its holding of Chinese assets [29]. The Chinese stock market was initially destabilizing due to the retreat of overseas investors over the concern that the sanctions on Russia might affect China as well [30]. Ukraine being a substantial exporter of wheat and other grains, contributing about 30% of China's corn imports, the ongoing war is elevating food prices in China [31]. Thus, the war is exerting both positive and negative attributes to the Chinese economy.

M. China’s Attitude towards Russia and Ukraine

China has withdrawn TikTok from Russia. This is their toughest stand over Russia! While vowing to remain neutral, they have declared their relation with Russia to be ‘iron clad’. China has also abstained from the UN General Assembly vote for condemnation of Russia. On the other hand, in order to safeguard their Belt and Road Initiative as well as the import-export chain, China is trying to maintain cordial relations with Ukraine and the rest of the European imperial partners [32].

N. Affinities of Ukraine to the Russian bloc

From 2010 to 2014, Viktor Yanukovych was the elected President of Ukraine. He was a member of the Party of Regions. The party supported the elevation of Russian as a second official language in Ukraine and favored increased social spending. Many of its members were in favor of the formation of a Ukrainian Federation. Thus, the pre-2014 existence and electoral victory of the Party of Regions signified the aspirations of the Russian speaking Ukrainians and the presence of regionalist sentiments.

O. Affinities of Ukraine to the EU bloc

When Yanukovych refused to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) and advocated for the Russia backed Eurasian Economic Union in defiance of the parliament’s approval for finalizing the agreements with the EU, protests (Euromaidan) with calls for the resignation of the President and Prime Minister began at the Independence Square in central Kyiv in 2013. As a consequence of such unrest, the Ukrainian government was overthrown in 2014 (Revolution of Dignity). Following the so called Ukrainian Revolution of 2014, the successive presidencies of Oleksandr Turchynov, Petro Peroshenko and Volodomyr Zelensky have been overwhelmingly pro-EU. The incumbent President’s ‘Servant of the People’ party is populist and shelters various ultra-nationalist tendencies within its fold.

P. Does Ukraine have ‘Clean Hands’?

1. Ukrainian Ultra-Nationalism and Intolerance

The Russian Empire banned the public use of Ukrainian in 1863 and 1876. Before World War II, Ukraine spoke Ukrainian (mainly in the countryside), Russian (in urban areas), Yiddish, German, Romanian, Hungarian and Polish. After World War II, following the Holocaust, deportations and territorial delimitations, Ukraine mainly spoke Ukrainian and Russian. In the Soviet Union, the medium of instruction in schools was determined based on the language of origin of children. But in the Khrushchev Era, parents were given the right to choose the primary medium of instruction for their children. This policy transition greatly reduced Ukrainian medium schools since job prospects favored Russian which was used in urban state institutions. In 1989, Ukrainian was proclaimed the sole state language’. Though 20% of Ukrainians are ethnic Russians and 51 million Ukrainians speak Russian, the Ukrainian government has switched thousands of schools from Russian to Ukrainian medium since 1991. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a demand to recognize Russian as a second state language crept up in 1994, especially in Crimea and Donbas. Promises heeding to such demands were made during elections only to be forgotten after the results were declared; this pattern of deceit continued for decades. In 1996, the new constitution granted restricted autonomy to Crimea but Ukrainian remained the sole state language of the entire country. In 2001, the constitutional court that the constitution did not guarantee the right to use Russian [33]. In 2012, the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych established Russian as a regional language. This irked the Ukrainian elite. Following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, the 2012 law was swiftly repealed. In 2017, the Ukrainian parliament dictated that most broadcast content should be in Ukrainian and Russian as a language was forcefully stopped in schools.

In 2012, the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) reported decrease in tolerance towards Russians, Jews and Romanians in Ukraine since 2000. From 2006 to 2008, 184 attacks and 12 racial murders were reported. In 2009, 40 incidents of racial violence occurred. During the Euromaidan movement, clashes between Russian and Ukrainian ethnic communities began to take place. Following the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, anti-Russian sentiment skyrocketed in Ukraine. The ultra-nationalist Svoboda party and Right Sector group are champions of Russophobic rhetoric. The ultra-right Azov Battalion formed from a union of the ultra-nationalist Patriot of Ukraine and the neo-Nazi Social National Assembly is fighting against the rebels of Donbas. It was initially funded by Igor Kolomoisky, an energy magnate billionaire and a previous governor of the Dnipropetrovska region. After recapturing Mariupol from the rebels, they have been officially integrated into the National Guard of Ukraine in 2014. Facebook had banned them in 2019 only to reverse it in 2022 [34]. In 2020, activists of the ‘Patriots of Ukraine’, the militaristic youth wing of the ultra-nationalist Social National party, vandalized cafes and bars preferred by the Russian speaking community in Lviv. The Russian Orthodox churches were also attacked. The government turned a blind eye to these events. The Lviv city council tried to ban Russian language based pop music, Russian language radio station and began bullying retailers of Russian literature and newspapers. To add, Russian language based newspapers still outnumber Ukrainian 10 to 1 [35]. Currently, the Azov Battalion is reported to have surrendered to Russian forces in Mariupol [36].

According to the 2001 census, 77.5% inhabitants identified themselves as ethnic Ukrainians, of whom 14.8% declared Russian as their language of origin. A Ukrainian man has said, ‘Any real native of Kiev speaks Russian. We learned Russian at school, we speak Russian at home, and I can't be bothered learning Ukrainian now. I'm too old for that’ [37]. The Ukrainian intellectuals also exhibit such admixture. They include Hryhorii Skovoroda from Kharkiv wrote in a hybrid medium of Ukrainian, Russian and Church Slavonic (1722-1794), Bruno Schulz, the Polish-Jewish writer from Drohobych (1892-1942), Paul Celan, German language based Jewish poet from Chernivtsi (1920-1970), Russian poet Anastasia Afanasyeva and Ukrainian writer Serhiy Zhadan, both from Kharkiv [38]. Thus, language and culture of a population are not rigid. Alongside the preservation of tradition, some aspects of language and culture undergo shift or admixture with the passage of time. Ultra-nationalism tends to forcibly reject such historical transitions and ignite ethnic hatred based on doctrines of rigidity. The failure of the ultra-right coalition in winning a single seat in the Ukrainian parliament in the 2019 elections is a reflection of rejection of such rigidity by the Ukrainians. However, the incorporation of such elements within its fold by the ruling Servant of the People party raises concern.

2. The Crimean and Donbas Civil War

The Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic was formed as a part of the Soviet Union in 1921. After being freed from German occupation in 1944, the Crimean ASSR was dissolved and Crimea became an administrative unit of the Russian SSR. In 1954, the region was added without referendum to the Ukrainian SSR. A referendum on the question of sovereignty was held in Crimea on 20th January, 1991 and the proposal to re-establish the Crimean ASSR was approved by 94% of the voters. However, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea was declared as a part of Ukraine. Its autonomy was quelled and the Crimean Constitution of 1992 was abolished in 1995. The Constitution of 1998 quenched Crimean autonomy and any legislation passed by the Crimean parliament could be vetoed by the corresponding Ukrainian big brother. Following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, demonstrations against anti-Russian extremism began in Crimea. In February 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. On 16th March 2014, a referendum was held amidst Russian military occupation (hence disputed) and 97% voters (83% voter turnout) opted for integration of Crimea into the Russian Federation. A similar picture was seen in case of the Sevastopol local government. Presently, Russia has recognized Crimea as a sovereign state. According to the 2001 census, in Crimea 77% of the population have Russian tongue. Since the 1991 referendum has depicted Crimean aspirations of sovereignty, the 2014 referendum (though disputed) can be considered a continuation of previous ambitions. Hence, the attitude of the Ukrainian government of restricted autonomy, disregard for the 1991 referendum, suppression of Russian language, 2014 anti-Russian ultra-nationalism and militaristic suppression over Crimea ignited this civil war.

Anti-Russian ultra-nationalism borne out of the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution provoked the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine) to begin demonstrations in demand of sovereignty. The Russian annexation of Crimea further catalyzed this pro-Russian rebellion. The armed separatist militia declared the establishment of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR respectively) and got engaged in armed conflict with the Ukrainian government. The DPR and LPR are recognized by each other, Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As a counter offensive, the Ukrainian military launched an ‘Anti-Terrorist Operation’ (ATO) (currently called ‘Joint Forces Operation’ or JFO) and began to defeat the rebel forces. Taking advantage of the situation, Russia deployed a ‘humanitarian convoy’ and the DPR and LPR rebel forces regained much of their territory. This culminated in the signing of the Minsk Protocol. The attitude of the Ukrainian government of suppression of Russian language and 2014 anti-Russian ultra-nationalism over Donbas ignited this civil war.

The joint statement (February 2022) of 37 communist parties and 25 youth organizations from various parts of the world states, “We denounce the activity of fascist and nationalist forces in Ukraine, anti-communism and the persecution of communists, the discrimination against the Russian-speaking population, the armed attacks of the Ukrainian government against the people in Donbas. We condemn the utilization of reactionary political forces of Ukraine, including fascist groups, by the Euro-Atlantic powers for the implementation of their plans.

The decision of the Russian Federation to initially recognize the “independence” of the so-called “Peoples’ Republics” in Donbas and then to proceed to a Russian military intervention, which is taking place under the pretext of Russia’s “self-defence”, the “demilitarization” and “defascistization” of Ukraine, was not made to protect the people of the region or peace but to promote the interests of Russian monopolies in Ukrainian territory and their fierce competition with Western monopolies” [39].

Ukraine must recognize the sovereignty of the Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol City Council, Donetsk & Luhansk People's Republics and end their military offensive immediately. Russia must respect the independence of the concerned republics and refrain from imposing Kremlin’s decisions on them. The concerned independent republics must not take Russian aid for granted; otherwise they will suffer the same fate of Azad Kashmir under Pakistan.

Q. US-China Proxy War?

In the present neoliberal era, a transition from ‘ensemble’ (production of cheap durable commodities in large numbers) to ‘temporal’ (production of expensive fragile commodities in small numbers repetitively) mode of production is observed. This temporal mode of capitalist production has led to the generation of huge amount of contracts regarding production and trade ‘in future’. This has resulted in the origin of derivative trading in stock market. Derivative trading involves profiteering from commodities that have not been already produced. This has led to capitalist overproduction in time. It manifests as global stocks trades crossing the real world GDP (100% benchmark) and resulting in cyclical financial crises, each time emerging from various capitalist countries (predominantly USA and China) [For detailed reading: See Ref. 40]. The figure (data source: Ref. 41) above shows that the stocks traded as percentage of GDP of US and China have been above or around the 100% real GDP benchmark signifying themselves as major contributors to global financial crises. The notion of a proxy war between US and China in the form of Ukraine-Russia war to overcome economic contradictions may sprout from such observations. As the world continues to suffer from this imperialist war (soaring fuel and regular commodity prices, nation based economic bankruptcy, global manufacture ebbing etc), US might benefit from this war. Considering the geopolitical relations and import-export routes, it may seem unlikely for China to accentuate such conflict especially when it already has important European investments (Belt and Road Initiative) and at the same time tops the import and export list of both Ukraine and Russia. However, incognito advantages of a proxy war and China’s economic rise challenging the imperialist core countries do substantiate such notions of a proxy conflict. Study of capital flows and economic aids of Ukraine and Russia do show a US-EU bias for the former and a Chinese bias for the latter. Thus, notions of proxy conflict add a new dimension to this war though they are yet to be verified.

References

1. https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insights/ukrainian-economy-matters-russia

2. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253787.shtml

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8. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253787.shtml

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11. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253787.shtml